Since the Sept. 11 attacks, Americans have become increasingly concerned that the next one might be even worse. Among terrorism experts, however, the focus has shifted from a single large-scale assault- which would be difficult to pull off- to a series of smaller attacks that could be just as damaging to the U.S. economy and public morale. How serious are these threats? What form might they take? Consider the following.

BIOCHEMICAL  ATTACKS

Smallpox

FEAR - The smallpox virus is highly contagious and would spread quickly because Americans are not vaccinate. Routine inoculations were halted in 1972. People vaccinated before 1972 lost most of their immunity within 10 days. 

FACT - A terrorist who wanted to launch a smallpox attack, however, would probably have a very hard time getting hold of the virus. Smallpox was eradicated in 1980. Officially, only two stores of the virus exist, in secure locations in the U.S. and Russia. There may be covert stashes in Iraq, North Korea and Russia, but these countries would be reluctant to release them, fearing a smallpox epidemic among their own unvaccinated people. Even if a terrorist were successful in obtaining the virus, his plans could backfire: smallpox is so contagious that the first victims are likely to be the members of his own terrorist cell.

Anthrax

FEAR - Many Bacterial agents can be used as bioweapons but anthrax stands out because its spores are extremely durable; they are resistant to sunlight, heat and disinfectant, and can remain active in soil and water for years. Anthrax occurs naturally in both wild and domestic animals-including cattle, sheep and camels. Infection from direct contact with affected animals is fatal in 20% of cases. If inhaled, however, anthrax spores cause death almost 90% of the time.

FACT - Manufacturing sufficient quantities of any bacteria in a stable form is a technical and scientific challenge; plague bugs, for example, degrade within hours when exposed to the sun, and anthrax spore tend to clump together in humid conditions. The Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo sprayed anthrax and botulism eight times over parts of Tokyo without effect.

Sarin

FEAR - Unlike biological agents, which are living organisms that require proper conditions to survive, chemical weapons such as the nerve gases sarin and VX are relatively easy to acquire and stockpile. 

FACT - Chemicals are difficult to manufacture in sufficient quantities for a large-scale attack, however; more likely are isolate assaults such as the 1995 sarin attack on a Tokyo subway that injured thousands and killed 12.

WATER

Reservoirs

FEAR - Many of the nation's reservoirs are unprotected and vulnerable to a terrorist attack.  It is conceivable that someone could dump deadly biological or chemical agents into a reservoir that could ultimately affect a cities population.

FACT -  Terrorist would find it extremely hard to inflict widespread casualties through our water supply. Chlorine is treated water kill most microbes, and huge quantities of chemical toxins would have to be dumped into a reservoir to make many people sick, let alone kill them.

Dams

FEAR -  If poisoning the water supply doesn’t work, terrorist might try to cut it off or disrupt it. On an even grander scale, they might blow up a dam, causing widespread flooding damage downstream. Compounding the impact would be the loss of hydroelectric-power generation. 

FACT - With security beefed up at major dams across the country, however, especially at landmark behemoths such as the Hoover and Grand Coulee dams, it would take a very determined effort to carry out such an attack.

HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

Chemical Plants 

FEAR - Some 850,000 facilities in the U.S. handle hazardous chemicals. Many substances that have benign industrial uses, such as metal cleaning or photo developing can in theory be turned into dangerous weapons. 

FACT - Gaining access to plants either for sabotage or to get raw materials is extremely difficult. Employees handling hazardous materials undergo security background checks, and chemical manufactures across the country have been double-checking their employee rolls. Since Sept. 11, most facilities have barred outside visitors and allowed only authorized personnel to enter.

Trucking Companies 

FEAR - Dangerous chemicals are most vulnerable to interception while they are being transported. Today 2.5 million Americans have commercial driver’s licenses to carry fuels and other hazardous materials.

FACT - After the arrest of about 20 people suspected of fraudulently obtaining haz-mat licenses, chemical companies tightened their transport policies assigning two drivers to every vehicle and using satellite tracking  systems to monitor haulers from pickup to drop-off.

EXPLOSIVES

Car, truck and back pack bombs 

FEAR - Exotic weapons get a lot of attention, but conventional explosives and suicide bombers in pizza parlors, discotheques and shopping malls can spread terror with stunning effectiveness. Fertilizer bombs like the one that destroyed the Alfred P.Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, Okla., in 1995 could wreak havoc with bridges tunnels and buildings. Nuclear-power and chemical manufacturing plants make even more horrifying targets. The 1984 leak at the Union Carbide plant in Bhopal, India, may have killed 3,000. Estimates of the final death toll from the 1986 explosion in the Chernobyl nuclear plant run as high as 30,000.

Nuclear weapons  

FEAR - The ultimate nightmare would be terrorist in the U.S. wielding nuclear weapons. For this reason, the ability to create-or worse, steal or buy weapons-grade plutonium has long been as issue of great concern and international intrigue.

FACT - The practical difficulties in acquiring precisely the right materials, not to mention the engineering know-how to jerry-build a nuclear device successfully, make this type of threat highly unlikely.

Advantages and disadvantages OF available protection

GAS MASKS

Purpose: Designed to protect the user against inhalation of biological agents and some chemicals agents.

Do they work? A good model like the Advantage 1000CBA-RCA does, but you have to be wearing it when the gas hits. To do that, you have to know when to put it on, and unfortunately some biological and chemical weapons have no odor. Fiber masks designed for medical workers keep out some germs but not chemical or biological weapons.

Availability: Online and in Army-surplus store, if you can find them. The Advantage runs about $160. Israel masks can go for as little as $19.99. Face masks cost about $1 at medical supply houses, but even at that bargain price, there’s no point in buying them.

ANTIBIOTICS

Purpose: To kill bacteria that may be used in bioterrorism,  such as anthrax and plague.

Do  they work?  Cipro is the only drug approved for biological attacks-specifically for inhaled anthrax-although it’s never been directly tested in humans. Doxycycline and penicillin may help as well, if given over along term.  Streptomycin or gentamicin are preferred for plague, but tetracyclines and fluoroquinolones also do the trick. For tularemia, doxycycline and ciprofloxacin are the antibiotics of choice. Prompt treatment is essential

Availability:  By prescription, although doctors should not prescribe until they know you’ve been infected. Cost for all is reasonably low.

ANTIDOTES

Purpose: To counter poisons like botulism toxin and nerve gases like sarin, tabun and VX.

Do they work? Atropine effects of nerve gases. Full recovery is possible if  treatment is immediate. But atropine can cause serious side effects if you have not been exposed to a nerve agent. Botulism antitoxin halts, but does not reverse., the paralytic effects.

Availability: Hospitals and ambulances have atropine; the Center for Disease Control stocks botulism antitoxin.  Civilians can’t buy either.

WATER FILTERS

Purpose: Attach to the tap to remove toxins from drinking water.

Do they work?  PUR filters trap small amounts of asbestos, atrazine, benzene, MTBE, lead and other chemicals. Not good againts bacteria or viruses.

Availability: Easy to find for about $50.

HAZ-MAT SUITS

Purpose: To protect the entire body against biological or chemical agents

Do they work? Level B suits keep out low concentrations of germs and gases. Level A suits work under much more toxic conditions.

Availability: A civilian can’t get a Level A suit because it requires 40 hour of training for safe use. A Level B suit costs from about $45 to $200 and is dangerous if not used properly.

 

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